Bluffs that work: frequencies, not courage
Courage bluffs are content, not strategy. The bluffs that print are scheduled — part of a range that includes enough value hands that villain cannot profitably snap you off. If you bluff when you «feel it» and value bet when you «have it,» your frequencies are readable in 40 hands.
Pick hands that want to bluff
Bluff candidates are missed draws with blockers — A♠ on a three-spade board, KQo blocking KQ value, 7x on 8-9-T when you need folds from middling pairs. Pure air with no blockers is for movies. In your pool, blockers + fold equity beat storytelling.
The frequency checklist before you fire
Count value combos
How many nuts/near-nuts do you have here? If zero, every bluff is transparent.
Estimate fold rate
Villain's WTSD and line matter more than your bravado. Station → don't.
Pick size first
Polar spots → big. Merged spots → often check instead of bluff.
Log the bluff
Tag B in notes when you bluff — review frequency, not individual glory.
When to shut bluffs off entirely
- Villain WTSD > 32% over meaningful sample — you are paying to show ads.
- You checked turn because you were scared — river bluff is cap reveal, not pressure.
- Board pairs on river and you never value bet thin — your bluffs have no cover.
I remember the stone-cold bluff that got me subscribed on social
I remember ripping pot on river with 9-high because the table was «dead» — got called by second pair, lost $420, clip got 2k likes. Next 200 rivers I ran the math: my bluffs showed up 11% of the time, needed ~14% to break even at that size vs that player pool. Courage was −$1.1k over the sample. Frequency fix recovered half in a month without a single «sick» bluff.
Tag every river bluff for ten sessions on NUTS POKER, compare frequency to the α math for your sizing, and cut bluffs in WTSD pools before adding «hero» shots. The table pays frequencies — not your face.
