Bankroll management: how many buy-ins you really need
Bankroll rules are not morality — they are risk-of-ruin controls. «30 buy-ins» is not scripture; it is a confidence interval on how often you go broke with a given edge and format variance. Treat multiples like seatbelts: the number depends on speed (format) and crash severity (stake jump timing).
Why MTT needs triple cash multiples
Cash game variance scales roughly with √hands. MTT variance scales with payout ladder jumps — min-cash vs final table is not a linear delta. A 5 bb/100 cash winner might need 30 buy-ins; a 10% ROI MTT reg with the same «skill» often needs 100+ because one dry month is 40 buy-ins without playing badly. Format drives denominator.
The operating system: tiers, not feelings
Define poker bankroll only
Rent money excluded. Mixed wallets lie about RoR.
Pick format-specific multiple
Write 100× MTT or 35× cash on the first line of your ledger — not «about a month of buy-ins.»
Shot rules before shot
Two buy-ins max at next stake; drop after −3 at shot stake regardless of mood.
Monthly RoR audit
Plug bb/100 or ROI, sample size, and bankroll into any RoR calculator — adjust stake or volume.
Common leaks that fake bankroll health
- Reload denial — counting only «online balance» while credit card reloads hide true RoR.
- Stake hopping after one cash — +5 buy-ins is not a promotion; it is variance smiling once.
- Mixed formats, one wallet — SNG heater funding NL500 shots without separate columns.
- «I'll stop when tilted» — tilt tax belongs in bankroll math as +10% effective variance.
I remember moving up at 22 buy-ins because the pool looked soft
I remember jumping from NL100 to NL200 at 22 buy-ins because two regs looked exploitable — ran −14 buy-ins in nine days without a single «spew» hand flagged in review. RoR calculator afterward: ~38% chance of bust within six months at my actual bb/100. Soft pool does not shorten variance; multiples do. Dropped back at 18, rebuilt to 40, moved up again — survived.
Calculate your format multiple tonight, set move-up and move-down lines in a ledger, and play one week on NUTS POKER without crossing them. Discipline is boring; broke is exciting once. NUTS POKER has stakes for every bankroll tier — pick the tier math allows, not the tier ego wants.
